- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:39
- Categories:Nabi Research Weekly
- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:39
Industrial Silicon Industry Information Weekly Report
Sichuan Nabi Silicon-based Materials Research Institute
April 22, 2022
I. Macro articles
(1) Economic Development
1. [National Bureau of Statistics: GDP in the first quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year] The National Bureau of Statistics released the preliminary accounting results of the national economy and showed that the GDP in the first quarter was 27,017.8 billion yuan, calculated at constant prices, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.3% over the fourth quarter of 2021. In terms of different industries, the added value of the primary industry was 1095.4 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0% year-on-year; the added value of the secondary industry was 10618.7 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 15,303.7 billion yuan, an increase of 4.0%. From the data, the national economic growth in the first quarter is not optimistic.
2. [National Energy Administration: As of the end of March, the national installed capacity of wind power was about 340 million kilowatts, an increase of 17.4% year-on-year] According to data released by the National Energy Administration, as of the end of March, the national installed capacity of power generation was about 2.40 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 7.8% . Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was about 340 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%; the installed capacity of solar power generation was about 320 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%.
(II) Element Control
(3) Currency and Capital
(IV) Environmental protection and safety
Second, the middle view
(1) Industry supply and demand
1, [Development and Reform Commission experts: domestic photovoltaics from 2023 The installed capacity is expected to increase by 100 GW per year] Tao Ye, deputy director of the Renewable Energy Development Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, expressed his personal opinion at the "2022 China Photovoltaic Market Development Forum", thinking: From the 1- According to the national power industry statistics in February, by the end of February 2022, the domestic new photovoltaic power was 10.86 million kilowatts, and the wind power was 5.73 million kilowatts. No matter from the project reserve or construction willingness, including enterprise transformation and national development demands, the whole year of 2022 should be able to Achieving 70 to 75 gigawatts of installed capacity, compared to just over 50 gigawatts last year.
According to the statistics released by the National Energy Administration, in 2021, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity will be 54.88 GW, a year-on-year increase of 13.9% , of which 29.28 GW were newly added distributed, accounting for 53.4%. Therefore, my country's new energy, especially the photovoltaic field, has truly entered the "two-wheel drive" stage from 2022, that is, there are large bases such as "Shagohuang" and other large-scale base projects, and there are also distributed, and later Those who have occupied half of the country. Therefore, he predicts that in 2022 new energy installed capacity should reach 140GW, and from 2023, the growth rate of installed capacity in the domestic photovoltaic market will enter an annual increase of 100 GW watt.
2. [Supply and Demand Outlook of the Photovoltaic Silicon Industry in the Second Quarter] According to the relevant information, it is estimated that the output from April to June will be 55,000 tons, 60,000 tons and 65,000 tons respectively, totaling 180,000 tons. Overseas markets are affected by the epidemic , the demand may slow down, so the overdue imports in the second quarter are not higher than 20,000 tons in the first quarter; the new production capacity in the second quarter includes 20,000 tons of Xinte and 60,000 tons of Asian Silicon Industry, but they are all in the climbing stage and are not expected to improve the market. Tight supply and demand situation.
From the perspective of demand, due to factors such as the domestic epidemic, component price increases, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global demand for silicon wafers in the second quarter may be weaker than the first quarter, even if Gaojing, Shuangliang, Beijing Express, etc. will be released in the second quarter The new production capacity of production, considering the ramp-up cycle of 6-month production, will not have a strong supporting effect on the demand for silicon wafers in the second quarter. At the same time, both GCL and Dongfang Hope have arranged production shutdown and maintenance plans in the second quarter, so the tight supply and demand of domestic photovoltaic silicon may continue in the second quarter.
(2) Technology and economy
(III) Industry development trend
1. [The trend of green building is gradually rising, will BIPV become a "just need for green building" in the future? ] Recently, a number of photovoltaic companies such as JinkoSolar and Risen Energy have launched BIPV (Building Integrated Photovoltaic) products. Driven by the policy, the acceptance of BIPV in the construction industry has been greatly improved. According to industry insiders, from the current point of view, carbon reduction in buildings is no longer a icing on the cake, but has become a necessity. The combination of buildings and photovoltaics will effectively promote the process of building energy conservation and carbon reduction, and at the same time open up new fields of application of photovoltaic products.
2. [Passenger Federation: The auto market generally declined in the first quarter and the auto market continued to be under pressure in the second quarter, and new energy vehicles maintained rapid growth] The Passenger Car Federation issued a document stating that the national passenger car market will be affected by the downturn in consumption in 2022. The total retail sales of the national passenger car market was 4.915 million, down 4.5% year-on-year, and the overall trend was lower than expected. Among them, the sales volume of traditional fuel vehicles was 3.85 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles was 1.070 million, a year-on-year increase of 146.6%. Looking forward to the national passenger car market in the second quarter, the temporary stagnation of the automobile industry chain caused by the epidemic will cause huge losses, and the impact of the supply of secondary parts will seriously affect the sales in the second quarter. If the fuel vehicle market continues to shrink significantly, it will have a significant impact on the demand for silicon-aluminum alloys.
3. [Hesheng Silicon Expands Photovoltaic Glass Business] Recently, the official website of the Xinjiang Department of Industry and Information Technology released "About the organization of the central Xinjiang Hesheng Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 3 million tons (in two phases) for ultra-thin high-tech equipment for new energy equipment. Announcement of the Hearing of the Transparent Photovoltaic Glass Manufacturing Project". This announcement also indicates that Hoshine Silicon will further expand its photovoltaic glass business. The project construction site is Ganquanbao Industrial Park in Xinjiang, with a designed production capacity of 9600 (8×1200), and the planned ignition and production time is June 2023. The project plan shows that Hoshine Silicon's expansion strategy in the field of silicon-based materials not only continues the conventional vertical extension of the main line, but also opens up the horizontal expansion of the branch line.
4. [Shin-Etsu Chemical launches a new thermal interface silicone rubber product] In order to increase the energy density of electric vehicles, the system voltage is moving towards a high-voltage route. This puts forward new requirements for heat dissipation measures for high-voltage components of electric vehicles. To meet these requirements, Shin-Etsu Chemical has developed thermal interface silicone materials —“TC-BGI series” high hardness thermal interface silicone rubber sheets. The product has both high pressure resistance and thermal conductivity. The product is divided into 0.2mm and 0.3mm according to thickness, which can achieve surface withstand voltage of 3KV and 5KV respectively, and has high thermal conductivity of 7W/m*K.
5. [Shanshan Co., Ltd.: Power battery silicon-based anode products are expected to be shipped in batches next year] Shanshan Co., Ltd. announced that: the company's power battery silicon-based anode products are expected to be mass-delivered next year, and the Baotou integrated second-phase project ( 60,000 tons) has been put into production in the first quarter of this year, and it is expected to reach production in the third quarter; the first phase of the Sichuan Meishan (200,000 tons) negative electrode integration base is expected to be completed in the middle of next year, of which 100,000 tons of graphitization capacity is expected in the second half of this year. Put into production; Mianyang polarizer base is expected to be put into production in 2023.
6. [On-machine numerical control: It is planned to increase no more than 6 billion yuan for the annual output of 50,000 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon projects, etc.] The on-machine numerical control announced that it is proposed to raise no more than 6 billion yuan for the annual output of 50,000 yuan. tons of high-purity crystalline silicon projects and supplementary working capital.
7. [Fuzhou Gaoyi Technology's first silicon carbide production line enters mass production] On April 21, according to the Fluorosilicon Association, Fuzhou Gaoyi Technology's first third-generation semiconductor silicon carbide wafer substrate production line entered a large-scale production line Mass production is expected to produce 100,000 pieces per year, with an output value of 500 million yuan. After the mass production of the first silicon carbide production line, the construction of the second and third production lines is also accelerating. It is reported that the silicon carbide wafer substrates produced by the first production line have been fully booked.
8. [TCL Technology: Signing a Cooperation Framework Agreement with GCL Group] TCL Technology (000100) announced on the evening of April 19, The company and its holding subsidiary Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. Xin Group and GCL Technology signed the "Cooperation Framework Agreement". The parties plan to invest about 100,000 tons of granular silicon and comprehensive utilization of silicon-based materials in Hohhot City, Inner Mongolia. The production and downstream application research and development projects, about 1 Strategic cooperation for the 10,000-ton electronic-grade polysilicon project, with a total investment of 12 billion yuan.
2021Depending on October 2020, except that GCL has announced that it is planning to launch in Baotou, Inner Mongolia CNC cooperation will build 300 tons of granular silicon in phases. In 2022, Zhonglai Co., Ltd. also announced that it plans to build a 300,000-ton granular silicon project in phases. This time, TCL and Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. jointly launched the granular silicon construction project and boosted the development of granular silicon. The industrial application scale of the route shows a significant growth trend, and the proportion of granular silicon in the polysilicon market will continue to grow in the future.
9. [Industrial Silicon Weekly Review on April 22] According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Branch: the overall price of industrial silicon remained stable this week, and some grades fell slightly. Among them, the price of metallurgical grade remained stable; the price of chemical grade fell by 300-400 yuan/ton; the price of polysilicon continued to rise, and the price of single crystal dense material rose by 0.72% month-on-month; the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable; the price of organic silicon DMC rose by 500 yuan/ton ; Industrial silicon export market data shows that foreign industrial silicon demand is good.
This week, the domestic market of industrial silicon remained stable, mainly due to the continued increase in raw material prices, the strong willingness of the supply side to support prices, and the stimulus of favorable factors such as the government's functional departments increasing policies to resume work, resume production and promote logistics. It is caused by a combination of factors such as a certain degree of repair. It is expected that under the background of the resumption of work and production of domestic organosilicon, polysilicon, silicon-aluminum alloy and other downstream enterprises, the recovery of transportation and logistics efficiency after the epidemic has gradually eased, and the continuous high price of industrial silicon raw materials, before the arrival of the flood season in Southwest China, industrial silicon May come out of a slight uptrend.
III. Micro articles
(1) Process and equipment case
(II) Operation and Management Cases
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