- Time of issue:2022-05-07 15:01
- Categories:Nabi Research Weekly
- Time of issue:2022-05-07 15:01
Weekly Report on Industrial Silicon Industry
Sichuan Nabi Silicon-based Materials Research Institute< /span>
February 11, 2022< /span>
I. Macro articles
(1) Economic Development
1, [NDRC: Expected 2022CPIContinues the Moderate Rising Trend PPIThe increase may gradually fall] The National Development and Reform Commission issued a document looking forward to 2022< /span> Year: The impact of the exogenous epidemic may gradually weaken, and the price movement is expected to depend more on endogenous factors in the economy. From an international perspective, global high inflation may continue for a period of time, but with the tightening of monetary policies in major economies, The gap between supply and demand tends to narrow, international commodity prices continue to rise sharply, and there is insufficient momentum, and inflationary pressure is expected to weaken marginally. Domestically, the economy continues to recover and develop, industry, consumer goods and services are abundantly supplied, and basic energy sources such as coal, oil and gas are properly guaranteed and regulated. Comprehensive research and judgment, 2022 will have a solid foundation for China's stable prices. It is expected that CPI will continue its moderate upward trend, and PPI may gradually decline, and upstream and downstream price trends will become more coordinated.
2, [Global manufacturing PMI continues to decline, global economic recovery momentum continues to weaken] China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released today, 20221 global manufacturing PMI higher Monthly decrease of 0.6 percentage point to 54.7%, a streak of 2< /span> month-on-month decrease. In terms of subregions, the PMI of the European manufacturing industry was unchanged from the previous month, and the PMI of the Asian and African manufacturing industries was higher than that of the previous month. There was a slight decrease, and the PMI of the Americas manufacturing industry dropped significantly from the previous month. Judging from the changes in the PMI of the global manufacturing industry, the index remains above 54%, showing the recovery trend of the global manufacturing industry still going on. However, the current index level is significantly lower than the average level of 56.1% in 2021, continuously 2 months of decline, indicating that the global manufacturing recovery momentum continues to weaken. 2022JanuaryChina PMIis 50.1, compared to 202112 Monthly decline of 0.2, although it remains above the line of prosperity and decline, it is significantly lower than the global level, which is very important for China in 2022 Macroeconomic trends should focus on the implementation and effects of the measures to maintain growth in the first quarter.
3, [National Development and Reform Commission: Moderately advance infrastructure investment] The National Development and Reform Commission said: Moderately advance infrastructure investment, and solidly promote the "14th Five-Year" plan102 major engineering projects were implemented. Promote the construction of new infrastructure, and increase the support for the optimization and upgrading of traditional industries to high-end, intelligent and green Spend. Strengthen the guarantee of land and sea energy and other factors for major projects, and make good use of the investment in the central budget and the special bonds of local governments.
4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the High-Quality Development of the Iron and Steel Industry". The opinion requires that the iron and steel industry in my country still has problems such as overcapacity pressure, insufficient industrial security capability, green and low-carbon development level to be improved, and low industrial concentration. Increase steel production capacity, promote the transfer of existing steel production capacity in an orderly manner, encourage mergers and acquisitions in the industry, develop electric furnace steelmaking in an orderly manner in combination with the recycling of scrap steel resources, improve the supply capacity of high-end products, and improve the digitalization level of the industry and the ability to guarantee resources (including primary steel Specific tasks have been issued for the import of products and semi-finished products) etc..
5, [A new round of tax cuts and fee reductions to accelerate the implementation of 14 preferential policies have been postponed] The National Development and Reform Commission said: The active fiscal policy mainly focuses on key industries such as small and medium-sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, and manufacturing, and implements a more intensive combined tax and fee reduction policy. Currently, there are 14 span> The preferential tax and fee policies have been extended.
6, [People’s Daily Commentary: Correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavioral laws of capital] It is clear that capital creates value and grows savagely from its profit-seeking nature, but preventing the disorderly expansion of capital, It's not that we don't want capital, but we want capital to develop in an orderly manner. By clarifying the rules, drawing a bottom line, setting up "traffic lights", guiding and urging enterprises to obey the party's leadership, obey and serve the overall economic and social development, encourage and support enterprises to promote scientific and technological progress, prosper the market economy, and facilitate the people Play an active role in life and participating in international competition.
7、People's Daily once again combined with the "About the Complete, Accurate and Comprehensive Implementation of the New Development Concept to do a good job of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" Opinions", reiterates the significance of "carbon peaking, carbon neutrality" is: With "resource conservation and environmental friendliness" as the overall constraint, comprehensively promote the high-end, intelligent and green traditional industries , so as to create new advantages for my country to participate in international cooperation and competition. Do not engage in "one size fits all" and "sport carbon reduction" in the implementation strategy. In terms of assessment, it is necessary to create conditions to realize the transition from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of total carbon emissions and intensity as soon as possible.
8, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission "Opinions on Improving Institutions, Mechanisms and Policy Measures for Energy Green and Low-Carbon Transformation". The opinions focus on green and low-carbon transformation, from the coordination mechanism of national energy strategy and planning implementation, the policy and institutional guarantee of green consumption of industry and residents, and the development of green and low-carbon energy focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas , the safety guarantee system of the new power system, the clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy, and the innovation of green and low-carbon technologies.
9, issued by the National Development and Reform Commission (2022version)(2022version). It contains Implementation Guidelines for Energy-Saving and Carbon-Reducing Transformation and Upgrading of Ferroalloy Industry. The 2022 version of the guidelines requires: “For enterprises whose energy efficiency is at the benchmark level, especially below the benchmark level, actively promote this implementation guide, green technology promotion catalog, industrial energy conservation Advanced technical equipment proposed by technology recommendation catalogue, “Energy Efficiency Star ”equipment product catalogue, etc.” , “For the production capacity whose energy efficiency is below the benchmark level, and it is difficult to achieve the production capacity above the benchmark level through transformation and upgrading within the specified time limit, the market-oriented approach and the rule of law are used to promote its accelerated exit. ”
(2) Element Control
1, Chile's Constituent Assembly initially passed a proposal this week aimed at Promote the nationalization of copper, lithium and other strategic assets. The value of lithium mines has become increasingly prominent, and the tendency of countries to set thresholds for lithium mining is becoming clearer.In 2020, Argentina, Bolivia and Chile will account for about 60% of global lithium resources. Recently, according to the Rio Times, Argentina , Bolivia and Chile are in discussions to establish an organization of lithium producers similar to "OPEC".Clearly, in green Under the low-carbon economic model, energy and metal resource countries have started the resource defense war.
2, The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a Unified National Electricity Market System". As the top-level design document for the construction of the national unified electricity market system, the opinion will help to further improve the marketization level of electricity transaction prices, benefit the enterprises at the power generation end and the electric energy regulation end, and at the same time manage the energy consumption and electricity procurement of energy-consuming enterprises. higher level requirements.
(3) Currency and Capital
1、[About overseas investment and bond issuance] The National Development and Reform Commission issued a document: In 2022, it will improve overseas investment services, improve the quality of overseas investment, promote the investment and development of overseas mineral resources and the interconnection of infrastructure, and build new services with high-level "going out" services. Development Pattern.
2, "Financial Standardization" Fourteenth Five-Year "Development Plan" proposed: Accelerate the improvement of the green financial standard system, from green bond standards, bond issuer environmental information disclosure standards, carbon emission reduction standards Effective loan statistical standards, green and low-carbon industrial loan statistical standards, carbon financial product standards, etc. build a financial support system for a green and low-carbon economy.
3、[The local investment attraction is gradually “allocation and investment” ten trillion guidance fund refers to industrial upgrading] span>Zingke Private Equity Data shows that since 2021, the cumulative 163 government guidance funds have been established successively, with a total target scale of 980.604 billion. Among them, 2021 established 150, the number of which hit 2019< /span> year's new high, with a target scale of 866.704 billion billion. In recent years, the rapid development of provincial, municipal and even county-level industrial guidance funds, and local governments have realized that the introduction ofHigh-quality projects require capital assistance.
4、[Local bond issuance welcomes “good start” helps infrastructure“stable opening”]The scale of local government bonds issued in various regions in January in 2022 is about 6989 billion , compared to 2021January issue size increased 336.564 billion yuan. In addition, the issuance of new special bonds in 1 this year accounted for 69.3% of the scale of local government bonds, becoming a local The protagonist of the good start of the bond issuance. This situation is related to the state's requirement to arrange new infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule to ensure that the macro economy "opens up steadily" in the first quarter.
5、[The central bank releases the currency for the month of 1 Data, the growth rate is significant]1 month RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion, a year-on-year increase 394.4 billion billion. By sector, household loans increased by 843 billion billion, of which short-term loans increased by 1006 billion, and medium and long-term loans increased by 1006 billion. Loans increase by 742.4 billion; span>Industry unit loans increased by 3.36 trillion, of which short-term loans increased by 1.01 trillion, and Long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion, and bill financing increased by 1788 billion; non-Bank a>Industry financial institution loans decreased by 1417 billion.
1Monthly RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion, an increase of 2627 over the same period last year billion, of which, household deposits increased by 5.41 trillion, and non-financial corporate deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 5849 billion, non-BankIndustry financial institutions’ deposits decreased by 1836 billion.
1At the end of the month, the broad money (M2) balance was 243.1 trillion yuan, Year-on-year growth of 9.8%, the growth rate was 0.8 and 0.4percentage.Narrow Currency(M1)Balance61.39trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, excluding the influence of the wrong time of the Spring Festival ①, M1 is up about 2% year-over-year. Currency in circulation (M0)balance10.62trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. Net cash placement in the month 1.54< /span>Trillion Yuan.
(IV) Environmental protection and safety
(1) Industry supply and demand
1, [CICC: It is expected that the price of industrial silicon may trend up and down in 2022] The research report of CICC believes that after the year of industrial silicon Prices may rebound, and we are optimistic about the market in 2022. Industrial silicon will face a shortage after the previous inventory is consumed, and prices may rise again. Entering the second half of the year, due to the Sheng Shanshan's 400,000-ton project will be put into operation, and the industry shortage will be greatly eased. On the whole, it is expected that the price of industrial silicon will rise in 2022 The trend may be high and then low. In the next five years, polysilicon (demandCAGR+20%) span>And silicone(CAGR+9%) promotes the rapid growth of industrial silicon demand, and the industry has long-term growth value.
2、Currently, the draft of the national standard "Safety Regulations for Electrochemical Energy Storage Power Stations" has been completed and is being submitted for review. The release and implementation of this standard will contribute to the sustainable development of new wind and solar power station investments.
(2) Technology and Economy
(3) Industry development trend
1, [The downstream PV industry is expected to have the most pre-loss-hit areas and the profit is expected to improve but the progress is still uncertain] Recently, listed companies in the PV industry have announced their 2021 annual performance forecast. It has been disclosed one after another that downstream battery and module manufacturers have become the hardest hit areas compared to upstream manufacturers.Although 2021< /span>The price of photovoltaic silicon dropped at the end of the year, but the magnitude of the correction and the transmission to the downstream were not ideal. The production capacity of some photovoltaic cells and modules that have been put into operation is still in the state of production according to the order, and it is impossible to achieve full production. This situation It is not conducive to the substantial increase in the scale of photovoltaic installations..In addition,According to the disclosure of 41a listed photovoltaic company< span lang="EN-US">2021 is forecast to increase by nearly 80% and the performance of leading companies has increased significantly, but many photovoltaic cell and module companies have pre-lost, indicating that the "stronger" in the industry is getting stronger ” the situation will be further improved.
2, [Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association: The price of silicon materials continued to remain stable and slightly increased in the first week after the Spring Festival] According to the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Association, the price range of domestic single crystal re-feeding this week is 23.5-24.7 million / tons, and the average transaction price rose to 24.2710,000 yuan / tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.66%; the price range of single crystal dense material is lang="EN-US">23.3-24.5 million / tons, and the average transaction price rose to 24.02 RMB 10,000/t, a week-on-week increase of 0.71%. In the first week after the Spring Festival, the price of silicon material continued to remain stable and rose slightly, among which the average transaction price of single crystal re-feeding, single crystal dense material and single crystal cauliflower material increased by 0.7% left and right.
3, [Silicon Round supplier Sumco: output has been fully ordered between now and the end of 2026] a major player in the semiconductor industry Silicon wafer supplier Japan Sumco Corp said it has now sold all of its capacity by the end of 2026 End, the news suggests that the industry's supply shortage may not ease for many years. All 300mm wafer volumes have been ordered for the next five years. For 150mm and 200mm wafers, no such long-term orders have been accepted, but demand may continue in the next few years more than supply. 2021 wafer prices up 10% over the previous year, Sumco expects this rally to continue at least through 2024.
Three, Micro Section
(1) Cases of craftsmanship and equipment
(II) Operation and Management Cases
1, Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481)2Month 8DayAnnouncement, two holding subsidiaries and central XinjiangHopsun Silicon< span style="mso-bidi-font-size:10.5pt; line-height:125%;mso-ascii-font-family:isoline;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:isoline;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-fareast">Limited sign salecontract, the total contract price is 3256 billion, and the contract object is Multiple pairs of rod reduction furnace equipment; at the same time, Dongfang Electric Heating (300217) also disclosed that its wholly-owned subsidiary signed a 4.26< /span> 100 million sale and purchase contract, the contract targets are electric heaters and reduction furnaces, and public information shows: Hesheng Silicon Industry Silicon-based New Material Integration Project (20 million tons of high-purity The polysilicon project) has entered the substantive operation stage. At the same time, public disclosure also shows that Daqo Energy, a leading polysilicon enterprise, has substantially launched 10 tons of high-purity silicon-based materials in Inner Mongolia. and 1000ton semiconductor silicon-based material project construction work.
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