- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:34
- Categories:Nabi Research Weekly
- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:34
Industrial Silicon Industry Weekly Information
Sichuan Nabi Silicon-based Materials Research
April 8, 2022
I. Macro articles
(1) Economic Development
(II) Element Control
(3) Currency and Capital
1. [The State Council releases a signal: timely use of multiple monetary policy tools to establish two new types of re-lending] On April 6, the State Council presided over an executive meeting and decided to deploy the timely use of CurrencyPolicy tools and other measures are more effective in supporting the development of the real economy. Regarding the "timely and flexible use of multiple monetary policy tools" means: as the Fed does not rule out that it will start to shrink the balance sheet as soon as May, April may open a time window for intensifying the implementation of prudent monetary policy, cutting RRR and cutting interest rates probability is further increased.
2. [China Development Bank’s 100 billion yuan loan in the first quarter to support the green and low-carbon transformation of energy] Information released by the China Development Bank shows that the bank focuses on the main business of development finance, and issued 1,090 loans to the energy sector in the first quarter. 100 million yuan, focusing on supporting the development of clean energy such as nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power generation, as well as the clean and low-carbon transformation of traditional energy such as coal.
(IV) Environmental protection and safety
Second, the middle view
(1) Industry supply and demand
1. [Silicon material supply is tight in the short term, and there is a risk of excess in the medium and long term] The data released by the Nonferrous Metals Silicon Industry Branch on April 6 showed that the domestic polysilicon price rose slightly this week, and the average transaction price rose by about 0.3%. Since the beginning of this year, domestic polysilicon prices have been rising for 12 consecutive weeks. From the perspective of domestic silicon material supply in the first quarter, self-produced 159,000 tons, plus imported 22,000 tons, the total supply is 181,000 tons, enough to support 70 GW of photovoltaic module material demand. At the same time, the industry expects that the global PV installed capacity will not exceed 50 GW in the first quarter of 2022. As a result, the domestic supply of silicon material is sufficient in the first quarter. ” The current high price of silicon materials is mainly due to the rapid expansion of photovoltaic downstream capacity. It is expected that as the new production capacity of silicon materials reaches production in the second quarter and begins to contribute to the increase, the tight supply of silicon materials will gradually ease.
According to industry tracking data, by the end of 2022, the domestic polysilicon production capacity will reach more than 860,000 tons per year, an increase of 340,000 tons per year over the previous year, which can meet the global installed photovoltaic terminal capacity of about 225 GW. The industry's conservative and optimistic expectations for the global terminal installed capacity in 2022 are 220 GW and 250 GW, respectively. Therefore, in 2022, the overall supply and demand of silicon materials will be basically balanced. However, considering the investment plans of the 16 new companies that are planning to invest in polysilicon projects, the total planned production capacity exceeds 1.7 million tons per year. However, the terminal demand in 2025 is optimistically expected to be only 400 GW, and the demand for silicon material is about 1.5 million tons per year. Therefore, the supply of medium and long-term silicon material is still at risk of oversupply.
2. [Affected by the stalemate between upstream and downstream, silicon prices continue to run steadily] On April 8, the Industrial Silicon Branch of the Nonferrous Metals Association disclosed data showing that the domestic industrial silicon prices did not change significantly this week, and the overall situation was in a downturn. Among them, the mainstream price of metallurgical grade is 20200-22900 yuan / ton, the mainstream price of chemical grade is 23200-24000 yuan / ton, the export performance is average, and the FOB price is stable. At the same time, the price of polysilicon rose slightly, and the price of monocrystalline dense material increased by 0.36% month-on-month; the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 fell by 400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 21,500 yuan/ton; the price of organic silicon DMC fell by 400 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation was 27,100 yuan/ton. Ton.
From the perspective of demand, the industrial silicon market has been affected by the recent outbreak of the epidemic in many places, and downstream demand and transportation have been suppressed to a certain extent. Weakened, although some industrial silicon manufacturers lowered their prices and shipped due to the pressure of inventory backlog, traders were in a cold mood.
From the perspective of the supply side, the total national output of industrial silicon in March totaled 211,800 tons. Among them, the Xinjiang region was affected by environmental protection inspectors, and the output decreased by 2.47% month-on-month. The output of Yunnan and Sichuan production areas increased steadily, increasing by 9.79% and 9.79% month-on-month respectively. An increase of 40.45%, so the domestic industrial silicon supply is generally stable. In terms of electricity price, the current electricity price in Xinjiang is still at a low level. The electricity consumption of various manufacturers is 0.26-0.36 yuan/kWh, which is still superior to the Yunnan electricity price of 0.52-0.58 yuan/kWh and the Sichuan electricity price of 0.58-0.62 yuan/kWh. Influenced by factors such as obvious price increases such as electrodes, industrial silicon factories are not willing to sell again by sharply reducing prices. At the same time, the epidemic has caused inconvenient transportation of raw materials, which may induce a tight supply of high-quality silica in the near future, which will directly affect the supply of chemical-grade industrial silicon, and will form a certain support for the price of chemical-grade industrial silicon.
In addition, on March 29, the Yunnan Provincial Government issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting the Exit of Outdated and Low-End Inefficient Production Capacity". Some silicon factories in Yunnan are on the list of restricted categories, and this document will speed up the withdrawal of some "restricted" industrial silicon production capacity in Yunnan. Antaike believes: In the long run, the supply of industrial silicon in Yunnan will not increase, the industrial silicon industry is booming, and the price is expected to run strongly.
(2) Technology and economy
【2021 Nabi No. 1 Furnace Production Data Analysis and Disclosure】
(1) In the whole year of production in 2021, the average daily output showed a decreasing trend with time. Only the average daily output in the first three months exceeded the assessment index by 18 tons per day, and the index continued to decline in the following months;
(2) In a statistical sense, the difference in the average daily output of each month is not reflected in the difference in the consumption of silica, electricity, etc., but in the error caused by random factors not included in the scope of data collection, and the effect of electricity consumption on the output The influence of the difference is much greater than that of silica; combined with the smelting process, the factors that have a greater impact on the daily average output error should focus on the raw materials (particle gradation, reactivity, resistivity, etc.) Operation, etc.;
(3) The average daily output in the three stages from June to August, September to October and November to December is not statistically significant, but the critical months of the three stages (that is, August and September, October and November) had statistically significant differences, from which it was inferred that the periodic deterioration cycle of furnace conditions was 2-3 months, and the second phase (September-October) was relative to the first phase. (June-August), the average daily output decreased by 9.71%, and the third stage (November-December) decreased by 20.84% compared with the first stage;
The above table shows the difference analysis of the average daily yield in June, July and August. The analysis data shows that there is no difference. The average daily output in June and July was almost the same, and the average daily output in August decreased significantly compared with the previous two months, but did not constitute a statistically significant difference
The above table shows the difference analysis of the average daily yield in September and October. The analysis data shows that there is no difference
The above table shows the difference analysis of the average daily yield in November and December. The analysis data shows that there is no difference
The above table shows the difference analysis of the average daily yield between the first stage in August and the second stage in September. The analysis data shows that there is a statistically significant difference
The above table shows the difference analysis of the average daily yield in October of the second stage and November of the third stage. The analysis data shows that there is a statistically significant difference
(3) In view of the fact that the industrial silicon industry is generally faced with problems such as the decline in output caused by the rise of the furnace bottom, combined with the above analysis, two aspects can be considered: combining the current situation of the furnace and the analysis of production parameters, establishing a decision-making model for digging the furnace, Carry out production organization according to the principle of maximizing comprehensive economic benefits; secondly, carry out research on the matching of process characteristic parameters of raw materials and equipment parameters, control the fluctuation of daily average output from three aspects of raw material quality control, material machine matching, and standardization of furnace operations, and prolong the Furnace condition stability.
(3) Industry development trend
1. [Shuangliang Energy Saving: It is planned to invest 5 billion billion to build a 20GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project] Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481) April 6 In the evening announcement, it signed the "Shuangliang Energy Saving System Co., Ltd. Baotou 20GW High-efficiency Photovoltaic Module Project Cooperation Framework Agreement" with the Baotou Rare Earth High-tech Industrial Development Zone Management Committee, and plans to invest a total of 5 billion yuan in Baotou Rare Earth High-tech Zone to build a 20GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module project , the project will be implemented in phases. The total investment of the first-phase 5GW photovoltaic module project is estimated to be 1.5 billion yuan, and the construction period is two years.
2. [Zhonghuan Co., Ltd.: plans to invest 20.6 billion to build 120,000 tons of high-purity polysilicon and other projects] Zhonghuan Co., Ltd. announced that the company, TCL Technology Reached a cooperation agreement with the People's Government of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and the People's Government of Hohhot City to jointly invest in the construction of the Inner Mongolia Middle Ring Industrial City project group in Hohhot City. The construction content includes a high-purity polysilicon project with a total production capacity of about 120,000 tons, semiconductor monocrystalline silicon materials and supporting projects, The national silicon material research and development center project, with a planned total investment of about 20.6 billion yuan. The entry of Zhonghuan into the field of silicon materials further strengthens the cognition that the integrated mode of the whole industry chain has almost become the unanimous choice of the leading enterprises in the photovoltaic industry.
3. [LONGi: Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission cancels the preferential electricity price policy and measures enjoyed by the company] LONGi (601012) Announcement on the evening of April 5th , the company received a letter from the Yunnan Provincial Development and Reform Commission on April 1st: cancel the preferential electricity price policies and measures enjoyed by the company in Yunnan Province, from September 1, 2021 Since then, all electricity prices of the company are formed through electricity market-based transactions and settled directly with power grid companies. This news can be characterized as a landmark event that strengthens the irreversible recognition of the trend of electricity market-oriented allocation. With the withdrawal of the policy-based electricity price mechanism, all manufacturing industries must face the realization of innovative energy-saving processes and energy-saving emission reduction technologies. The test of energy cost control.
4. [The Yingfa Ruineng 20GW high-efficiency solar cell project with a total investment of 11 billion yuan settled in Yibin] On March 31, the Yibin Municipal People's Government and Anhui Yingfa Ruineng Technology Co., Ltd. held a signing ceremony. Yingfa 20GW high-efficiency solar cell project The solar cell project officially settled in Gaojie Industrial Park, Xuzhou District, Yibin City, Sichuan Province. The total planned investment of the project is 11 billion yuan, which is divided into two phases. The first phase is to build a 10GW high-efficiency solar cell project with a planned investment of 5.5 billion yuan. At present, downstream companies of polysilicon frequently release information on production expansion plans and new production lines, which continue to boost the price of polysilicon at a high level. We should be vigilant against the high investment enthusiasm in the industry, and also pay attention to future mergers and acquisitions in the case of overcapacity Chance.
5. [Roshow Technology: The industrialization project of silicon carbide substrates is progressing in an orderly manner] 4On the evening of the 1st, Roshow Technology (002617) The response to the secondary feedback on the disclosure of the additional issue shows: the construction of the company's silicon carbide projects ("New Silicon Carbide Substrate Industrialization Project", "Silicon Carbide R&D Center Project"), in this reply It was mentioned in the announcement that the two fundraising projects are progressing in an orderly manner.
2020April, Roshow has a 4-inch Two projects, 4H-SiC semi-insulating silicon carbide substrate and 6-inch 4H-SiC conductive substrate, raised 643 million yuan. After the project is completed, Roshow will have an annual production capacity of 88,000 silicon carbide substrates. The company will start the additional issuance again in November 2021, and plans to raise funds of 2.567 billion yuan to expand the production capacity of 6-inch conductive silicon carbide substrates.
At present, the silicon carbide substrate market is in short supply as a whole. With the rapid increase in the market size of the new energy automobile industry and photovoltaic power generation industry The market demand for substrates will also continue to grow.
Third, Micro articles
(1) Cases of technology and equipment
(2) Operation and Management Cases
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