- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:17
- Categories:Nabi Research Weekly
- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:17
Industrial Silicon Industry Newsletter
Sichuan Nabi Silicon-based Materials Research Institute
April 1, 2022
I. Macro articles
(1) Economic Development
1, [The "Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2022" emphasizes the vigorous development of wind power and photovoltaics] On March 29, the National Energy Administration issued the "Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2022". The opinion emphasizes that it is necessary to pay equal attention to enhancing the supply guarantee capability, promoting structural transformation and improving the quality and efficiency of energy supply. Opinion requirements: In terms of energy structure adjustment, the proportion of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption should be increased to about 17.3%, the replacement of electricity by new electric energy is about 180 billion kWh, and the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach About 12.2%, in terms of new wind and photovoltaic installed capacity, in addition to intensifying planning and construction based on large-scale wind and solar bases, it is also necessary to pay more attention to the surrounding clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power as the support and stable, safe and reliable UHV transmission. Construction of a new energy supply and consumption system with substation lines as the carrier.
2,[PMI49.5 in March, falling in Below the line of prosperity and decline] The China Purchasing Managers Index released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on March 31 shows that in March, the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.5% and 48.4%, respectively. % and 48.8%, 0.7 percentage points, 3.2 percentage points and 2.4 percentage points lower than that in February, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry has declined. The analysis believes that due to the comprehensive factors such as the epidemic, international geopolitical conflicts, and prices, some enterprises temporarily reduced production and stopped production, which also affected the normal production and operation of upstream and downstream related enterprises. At the same time, the construction business activity index related to the infrastructure sector was 58.1%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the construction business is still in a high prosperity. Therefore, the PMI data in March shows that the overall downward pressure on my country's manufacturing industry has increased, and the economic stabilization policy with new infrastructure as the starting point has achieved initial results.
3, [Ministry of Finance: Further increase the R&D expense tax for technology-based SMEs The proportion of the former super deduction] The Ministry of Finance has clarified that the R&D expenses actually incurred in the R&D activities carried out by small and medium-sized technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises have not formed intangible assets and are included in the current profit and loss. /strong>From January 1, 2022, 100% of the actual amount will be deducted before tax; if intangible assets are formed, from January 1, 2022, the cost of intangible assets will be deducted 200% is amortized before tax.
(II) Element Control
1、【 The emission reduction generated by hydrogen energy is expected to be included in the CCER market] On March 27, a person from the Beijing Green Exchange stated at the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People’s Association Hydrogen Energy Industry Forum that the current exchange is under the supervision of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and Beijing Under the guidance of the government, it is actively promoting the construction of the National Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) trading center.
(3) Currency and Capital
——not yet available
(IV) Environmental protection and safety
Second, the middle view
(1) Industry supply and demand
1. [After 2023, Xinte Energy's polysilicon production capacity will reach 400,000 tons] Xinte Energy released information showing that by the end of 2021, Xinte Energy's total polysilicon production capacity will be 66,000 tons. It will be raised to 100,000 tons in half a year and put into production. In addition to the construction of 100,000 tons of polysilicon in Inner Mongolia (expected to be put into production in the second half of 2022) and the planned construction of 200,000 tons of polysilicon in Zhundong, Changji, Xinjiang, the company's polysilicon production capacity is expected to reach 400,000 tons after 2023.
2. [The price of polysilicon market is rising this week] According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Association: this week, there are 13 domestic polysilicon production enterprises with a total production capacity of about 181,000 tons, which is equivalent to 72GW of silicon wafers. The demand for silicon material for production capacity is slightly insufficient. Therefore, the average transaction price of single crystal re-feeding this week was 249,800 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous week; the average transaction price of single crystal dense material was 247,500 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the previous week. At present, the operating rate of downstream silicon wafer enterprises remains high and the progress of new production capacity release is accelerated, which increases the demand for silicon materials. Affected by the tight supply of upstream silicon materials and the accelerated construction progress of photovoltaic projects, domestic mainstream silicon wafer manufacturers have raised prices again.
(2) Technology and economy
1. [Strengthen ingredient management, furnace conditions of large furnaces need to be improved urgently] Through the analysis of Nabi's production data in 2021 (taking the data of No. 1 and No. 3 furnaces as examples), combined with professional literature views and furnace conditions In fact, the following judgments are initially obtained:
(1) The correlation between output and silica, reducing agent and power consumption is between 0.74-0.78. Pure material input is not enough to ensure that the output increases in the same proportion. Combined with practice, ingredients, furnace operation, equipment output capacity, etc. It is also an important factor affecting output;
(2) The correlation between silica and reducing agent and smelting electricity is above 0.8. The high-coke and low-coal process determines that the correlation between oil coke and silica is higher, reaching above 0.9, but the correlation index of No. 3 furnace is relative to The No. 1 furnace is obviously low. Combining the standard deviation of the unit silica with oil coke and clean coal indicators, the No. 3 furnace is not as stable as the No. 1 furnace, and the stability management of raw material procurement should be strengthened in the future;
(3) There is a relatively stable correlation between power consumption and silica consumption of more than 0.8, and the reducing agent is related to the smelting power consumption through the fixed molar ratio of silicon and fixed carbon; combined with professional literature discussion, stable The composition ratio of the mixture determines the stable performance of the mixture in terms of resistance, reactivity, gas permeability, etc., and is also the key to the matching of the material and the submerged arc furnace and the operation before the curing furnace;
(4) The correlation between unit power consumption of No. 1 furnace and unit silicon (reducing agent and bulk material) consumption is close to 1 (silica 0.99, petroleum coke 0.99, clean coal 0.98, wood chips 0.99), that is to say Ensuring sustained and stable high production is the main way to achieve a comprehensive reduction in unit consumption; to ensure that a large number of reactions to generate elemental silicon continue to occur, it is necessary to strengthen the control before the submerged arc furnace to ensure sufficient output to prevent and reduce Heat and silicon loss; relative to the No. 1 furnace, the correlation indicators of the No. 3 furnace are not only lower but also fluctuating (silica 0.85, petroleum coke 0.8, clean coal 0.49, wood chips 0.61), this situation may be similar to that of the No. 3 furnace. The ingredients are related to the unstable silicon yield and other factors, so it is necessary to focus on the equipment and do a good job in the matching test and adjustment of the material and the furnace;
(5) From the unit consumption indicators of silica, smelting electricity and electrodes, the indicators of furnace No. 1 calculated by the annual caliber are: 2.83 tons of silica, 14513 degrees of electricity, 107 kg of electrodes, and indicators of furnace No. 3 are: 2.97 of silica ton, 15888 kWh of electricity, 130 kilograms of electrodes, and the indicators of No. 1 furnace calculated according to the caliber of medium and high output (that is, the daily output of No. 1 furnace is 15 tons and above, and the daily output of No. 3 furnace is 25 tons and above): 2.6 tons of silica, 13,172 kWh of electricity, The electrode is 102 kilograms, and the indicators of No. 3 furnace are: 2.65 tons of silica, 13628 degrees of electricity, and 104 kilograms of electrodes. It can be seen from the calculated indicators that as long as continuous high production is ensured, Nabi's unit silicon consumption and power consumption are not far behind the industry requirements (2.5 tons of silica, power consumption of 13,000 kWh), mainly through effective measures to stabilize and high production. However, there is a common situation that the electrode consumption is too large. According to the literature, the electrode consumption per unit of the 25500KVA submerged arc furnace in Yunnan Yongchang is only 60 kg under the all-coal process. and furnace condition adjustment, and carry out special research.
(III) Industry development trend
1. [The market size of silicon carbide industry is expected to double by 5 times in 5 years] Silicon carbide (SiC), as the third-generation semiconductor material, has the characteristics of large band gap, high thermal conductivity and high critical breakdown field strength. With the advantages of high voltage resistance, low loss and high frequency, it can replace traditional silicon-based devices and be widely used in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic/wind power, industrial control, radio frequency and other fields. At present, silicon carbide is still in the early stage of penetration, mainly used in mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles, charging piles and base station radio frequency. Huatai Securities predicts that the global SiC device market will reach US$5.979 billion in 2025, a five-fold increase from 2020.
2. [Sanan Optoelectronics: Global Silicon Carbide Supply Will Exceed Demand in 2025] On March 27th, Sanan Optoelectronics was at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum According to the above, the demand for 6-inch silicon carbide wafers in 2025 will be 2.19 million and 4.37 million under conservative and optimistic conditions, respectively, and the demand for automotive silicon carbide will account for 60%. Under conservative conditions, the production gap of silicon carbide will reach 1.23 million pieces, optimistic. In this case, the gap will reach 4.86 million pieces, and the global silicon carbide substrates and wafers will be in short supply. Sanan Optoelectronics has completed the construction of the entire silicon carbide industry chain, including the production of long crystal substrates, epitaxial growth, chip production, packaging and other links, and has accumulated more than 200 customers.
3. [Jolywood chooses alkane fluidized bed method to build a new 100,000-ton polysilicon project] Recently, Jolywood (300393) made it clear in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's letter of concern: to build a 200,000-ton-per-year industrial plant in Taiyuan, Shanxi The silicon and 100,000-ton high-purity polysilicon project plans to adopt the silane fluidized bed process, and the technology source is domestic technology enterprises. In early March 2022, the company will formally sign the "Patent Licensing Agreement" with the technology source.
4. [The EU will rebuild the solar manufacturing industry at all costs] recently in BrusselsAt the Solar Energy Summit in Seoul, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said the European Commission will do whatever it takes to rebuild Europe's solar manufacturing industry. The main purpose of this move is to help Europe get rid of its dependence on Russian energy. About 40% of the EU's natural gas needs to be imported from Russia. After the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the EU decided to reduce the use of Russian natural gas by two-thirds this year and stop importing all fossil fuels from Russia by 2027.
5. [The UK plans to increase the installed capacity of photovoltaics to more than 3 times the current rate] Recently, the UK released the "Energy Security White Paper". The white paper sets out targets to expand renewable energy generation - with plans to increase the UK's installed solar capacity from the current 14 GW to 50 GW and offshore wind from 11 GW to 50 GW by 2030 watts, onshore wind capacity increased from 15 GW to 30 GW, and nuclear power capacity increased from 7 GW to 16 GW.
6. [In January-February, my country's crystalline silicon cell output exceeded 39GW] According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the national crystalline silicon output was 110,000 tons in January-February, equivalent to a module output of about 40GW (gigawatts), and an export of about 5.1GW; Silicon BatteryThe output is about 39.5GW.
7. [In 2022, my country's newly installed photovoltaic capacity is expected to exceed 75GW] The data released by the National Energy Administration shows that from January to February, domestic photovoltaic new The increase in grid connection increased by 234% year-on-year to 10.86 GW, which is close to the new increase in the first half of 2021; the newly installed wind power capacity was 5.73 GW, a year-on-year increase of 61%. Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said: It is expected that the newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2022 will be about 75 GW-90 GW, which is expected to usher in a growth of 36%-64%.
8. [New progress of "replacing carbon with hydrogen" in China's steel industry: the first test of pure hydrogen smelting technology in blast furnaces] Recently, Shanghai University and the Changli Xingguo Precision Machinery Co., Ltd., a private enterprise in the Changli County Circular Economy Industrial Park, has jointly completed the development test of the first blast furnace hydrogen-rich smelting technology in my country using pure hydrogen as the injection gas source. During the test, the system was running normally, and the relevant data reached the expected standard. Through this test, the reduction of coke ratio by more than 10%, the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by more than 10% and the increase of iron production by more than 13% have been achieved.
The world's first blast furnace hydrogen injection test was reported on November 11, 2019 at ThyssenKrupp's Duisburg steel plant No. 9 blast furnace implementation. Zhang Yuwen, a professor at the School of Materials Science and Engineering of Shanghai University, said that the oxidation-reduction reaction between hydrogen and iron ore is endothermic, which will cause the blast furnace temperature to drop. Therefore, the technical difficulty of this experiment is: how to use hydrogen to the maximum extent under the premise of ensuring the furnace temperature. He said , the injection volume of pure hydrogen in this hydrogen-rich smelting test reached 1800 cubic meters per hour, and 250 cubic meters of iron per ton. Influence behavior of injection volume change on blast furnace smelting process.
9. [Tongwei Co., Ltd. plans to invest 12 billion yuan to build a 32GW high-efficiency crystalline silicon cell project] Tongwei Co., Ltd. announced that it plans to invest in the construction of a 32GW high-efficiency crystalline silicon cell project in Qinglong Street, Tianfu New District, Meishan. The project will be implemented in two phases, with an estimated total investment of 12 billion yuan. The downstream production capacity of crystalline silicon continued to expand.
Third, microscopic articles
(1) Process and equipment case
(II) Operation and Management Cases
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