- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:15
- Categories:Nabi Research Weekly
- Time of issue:2022-05-12 13:15
Industrial Silicon Industry Newsletter
Sichuan Nabi Silicon-based Materials Research Institute
March 25, 2022
I. Macro articles
(1) Economic Development
1. [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the key points of automobile standardization work in 2022: starting the carbon footprint identification of automobile products] On March 18, the First Division of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Key Points of Automobile Standardization Work in 2022". The main points of the work are put forward: in order to strengthen the guidance of green technology standards and support the realization of the dual-carbon goal, start the pre-research on the carbon footprint labeling of automobile products and the evaluation method of greenhouse gas carbon emission reduction under the driving conditions of electric vehicles.
2. [National Standing Committee: Determine the policy arrangement for 1.5 trillion value-added tax credits and refunds] The executive meeting of the State Council on March 21 confirmed: 2022 The tax credit is about 1.5 trillion yuan. First, the tax refund is nearly 1 trillion yuan for small and micro enterprises in all industries and individual industrial and commercial households that pay taxes in the general taxation method; the second is for manufacturing, electricity and heatgas The existing tax credits of enterprises in 6 industries including water production will be fully refunded from July 1 and completed before the end of the year; the increment will be refunded in full monthly from April 1. The third is to arrange another 1.2 trillion yuan in transfer payment funds to support grassroots implementation of tax rebates, tax reductions and fee reductions. Suggestion: The Group's industrial sector enterprises should strengthen the implementation, tracking and reporting of tax refund policies.
3. [The Ministry of Finance issued the "Announcement on Further Strengthening the Implementation of the VAT Refund Policy at the End of the Period"] On March 23, the Ministry of Finance issued the "On Further Strengthening the Implementation of the VAT Refund Policy at the End of the Period" Announcement". The announcement clarifies the specific measures and operational methods of the VAT refund policy. In terms of policy implementation arrangements, the Ministry of Finance has made it clear that:
(1) Priority will be given to supporting small and micro enterprises, the refund ratio will be increased from 60% to 100%, and the remaining tax credit will be refunded in one lump sum before the end of June;
(2) Focus on supporting the manufacturing industry and other industries, and refund the existing tax credits of manufacturing enterprises in a lump sum by the end of 2022;
(3) The central government provides financial support. The Ministry of Finance, on the basis of paying 50% of the tax rebate according to the current tax system, will support the grassroots by arranging 1.2 trillion yuan of transfer payment funds;’
4. [The state released the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the modern energy system] On March 22, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on printing and distributing the "14th Five-Year" plan. em>Modern Energy System Planning notice. The plan is clear: by 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy will increase to 20% (by 2035, the proportion will increase by 5% every five years), the installed capacity of hydropower will reach 380 million KW, and the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 70 million KW. According to the country's 2020 primary energy consumption of 4.85 billion tons of standard coal and an average annual growth rate of 2.5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's total primary energy consumption in 2025 will be 5.49 billion tons of standard coal. Within 20% of non-fossil energy supply, coal and water consumption per KWH (4000) nuclear (7500) wind (2000) light (1200) electricity installed capacity and utilization hours and other parameters, in 2025, the total installed capacity of wind and solar (Assuming 1:1), the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaics can reach 494.2 million KW respectively. By the end of February 2022, my country's installed wind power is 330 million KW and photovoltaic installed capacity is 320 million KW. Therefore, from February 2022 to December 2025, the minimum incremental requirement of China's photovoltaic installed capacity is 174.2 million KW (ie 174.2GW), and the annual average new installed capacity is about 45.44GW.
In addition to clarifying the structure of energy consumption and supply during the 14th Five-Year Plan period and continuing to reaffirm the basic role of coal, the plan also addresses the guarantee of fossil energy supply, energy-saving transformation, the construction path of new power installed capacity, the requirements for the transformation of existing coal power, The basic key areas that meet the requirements of modern energy system construction, such as the construction of new power systems (including expansion of distributed, intelligent, wind-solar water [coal] storage, etc.), and improvement of power market trading mechanisms, are explained.
5. [The state released the "14th Five-Year" New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan"] On March 21, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "14th Five-Year" New Energy Storage Development Implementation Plan" . The plan emphasizes: promoting the development of diversified technologies and safety control, promoting the industrialization of new energy storage with demonstration and pilot projects, and by 2025 the new energy storage will enter the stage of large-scale development and have the conditions for large-scale commercial application, which is conducive to renewable energy. The installed capacity and ratio of energy storage are fully developed. By 2030, the comprehensive market-oriented development of new energy storage will basically meet the needs of building a new power system. The implementation plan reminds from the perspective of energy storage technology development and commercial application time: the larger-scale construction of uncontrollable green energy such as wind and solar should be after 2025.
[The state released "Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Medium and Long-Term Plan (2021-2035 years)"] On March 23, 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission released "Medium and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Hydrogen Energy Industry (2021-2035 )". The plan clarifies that hydrogen energy is an important carrier for realizing the large-scale utilization of renewable energy and the green and low-carbon transformation of end-use energy. It can be seen from the planning content: as a promising secondary energy source, hydrogen energy utilization faces problems such as core technology innovation, imperfect supply system and industrial system. At this stage, the state advocates the demonstration of the nearby utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen, hydrogen production from renewable energy, and applications in the transportation field. While improving the hydrogen energy production, storage, and transportation system, gradually enrich the hydrogen energy application ecology, and Through the exploration, large-scale alternative applications in the industrial field are finally realized.
(II) Element Control
——not yet available
(3) Currency and Capital
1、【The balance of technology-based corporate loans of banking financial institutions at the end of 2021 increased compared with the beginning of the year 23.2%] According to the data disclosed by the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, as of the end of 2021, the loan balance of technology-based enterprises in banking financial institutions increased by 23.2% compared with the beginning of the year, which was 12.1 percentage points higher than the average growth rate of loans. This is the 2021 China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission's "About the Banking IndustryInsuranceGuiding Opinions on Industry Supporting High-level Technological Self-Reliance and Self-Reliance" and "On Doing a Good Job in Manufacturing Financial Services in 2021" "Notice on Work", which directly reflects the supervision and guidance of financial institutions to strengthen financial support for technological innovation and enhance financial support for specialized, special and new manufacturing industries.
2. [The national issuance of local government bonds in February 2022 will be 507.1 billion yuan] According to the Ministry of Finance data: in February 2022, the national issuance of local government bonds will be 507.1 billion yuan, of which 100.8 billion yuan will be newly added general bonds, and the general refinancing will be 100.8 billion yuan. Bonds were 10.9 billion yuan (111.7 billion yuan in total), 393.1 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 2.3 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds (395.4 billion yuan in total). The total issuance in February decreased by 27.44% compared with January
3. [The bank responded positively“CurrencyPolicies must be proactive and new The policy tone of increasing loans to maintain moderate growth”]Following the proposal of the Financial Committee“CurrencyPolicies must be proactively dealt with and new loans must maintain moderate growth", the Standing Committee of the State Council once again clarified "Maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and maintain moderate growth in credit and social financing" to set the tone for credit growth. At present, for inclusive finance, green credit, specialization, specialization and other fields of loan interest rates, some banks have indicated that "the approval can be exempted and the loan interest rate can be reduced by 20 basis points"; some banks are also making efforts in the innovation of credit products. , such as exclusive technology and innovation loans for specialized and new enterprises, ‘one policy for one household’ formulating exclusive credit service plans, current loans and long-term loan matching, etc.
(IV) Environmental protection and safety
1. [The state will strictly control the construction projects involving phosgene, chlorine, ammonia and other toxic gases and explosives] The Ministry of Emergency Management issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the Safe Production of Hazardous Chemicals, the plan Clear requirements: provinces, cities and key chemical parks involved in the chemical industry formulate and improve the development plan of the chemical industry, cities divided into districts formulate and improve the "prohibited, restricted and controlled" catalogue of hazardous chemicals, and strictly control phosgene, chlorine, Construction projects of toxic gases and explosives such as ammonia.
Second, the middle view
(1) Industry supply and demand
1. [Photovoltaic leader JinkoSolar announces production expansion plan] following LONGi shares, JA Solar and many other leading photovoltaic companies announced their investment and capacity expansion plans. .eastmoney.com/unify/r/90.BK1033" target="_blank">battery The global leader in PV modules with vertically integrated production capacity of modules JinkoSolar announced two investment plans on March 18< /p>
(1) The company signed an investment agreement with the People's Government of Guangxin District, Shangrao City on March 18. JinkoSolar plans to build a 24GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module and a 100,000-ton photovoltaic module aluminum project in Guangxin District, Shangrao City. The total investment of the project is about 10.8 billion yuan. The project is divided into three phases. Among them, the first phase will construct 8GW high-efficiency photovoltaic modules; the second phase will construct 8GW high-efficiency photovoltaic modules; the third phase will construct 8GW high-efficiency photovoltaic modules and 100,000 tons of aluminum profiles for photovoltaic modules. The project will be put into production before December 15, 2022, and will reach production before June 15, 2023. The second phase of the project is expected to be constructed in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the third phase is expected to be constructed in the third quarter of 2025.
(2) The company signed an investment cooperation agreement with the Xining Municipal People's Government and the Management Committee of Xining Economic and Technological Development Zone. JinkoSolar plans to invest in the construction of 30GW monocrystalline rod photovoltaics in Nanchuan Industrial Park under the jurisdiction of Xining Economic and Technological Development Zone. Industrial projects, the total investment of the project is about 10 billion yuan. Among them, the first phase plans to build a production line with an annual output of 20GW of single crystal rods. In April 2022, the construction of a production line with an annual output of 20GW of single crystal rods will begin, and in 2023-2024, the construction of a production line with an annual output of 10GW of single crystal rods will be promoted in a timely manner according to market demand. The estimated investment of the first phase of the 20GW single crystal rod project is about 7 billion yuan, and the estimated investment of the second phase of the 10GW single crystal rod project is about 3 billion yuan.
2. [The construction of Hopson Silicon Industry Shanshan Phase III with an annual output of 200,000 tons of siloxane and its downstream deep processing project started] On the morning of March 17, the groundbreaking ceremony of the Hopson Silicon Industry Shanshan Phase III project with an annual output of 200,000 tons of siloxane and its downstream deep processing project was held at In the first quarter of 2022, major projects in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region will resume work and the groundbreaking ceremony will be held in Turpan branch venue.
3. [Oriental Hope's 400,000-ton polysilicon and 490,000-ton industrial silicon phase I project in Ningxia started] March 18, 2022, Oriental Hope Group Ningxia Crystal The launching ceremony of the new energy materials project was held at the Shizuishan branch venue. This project is a project that Dongfang hopes to build in Ningxiaannual output of 400 tons of high-purity crystalline silicon, 490,000 tons of industrial silicon, as well as monocrystalline, silicon wafers, and solar cells. , The upstream and downstream integrated whole industry chain projects of battery modules. The project originally planned to build 250,000 tons of polysilicon in the first phase and 290,000 tons of supporting industrial silicon. In June 2021, preliminary work such as environmental impact assessment was started. This start-up project is the first phase of the first phase of the project. It plans to build an annual output of 125,000 tons of polysilicon, 145,000 tons of industrial silicon, and 10GW of monocrystalline, 10GW slices, 10GW cells, and 25GW modules.
(2) Technology and economy
(III) Industry development trend
1. [Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter to question Jolywood's 14 billion silicon material project] In response to the announcement of Jolywood's investment in the 14 billion silicon material project, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a letter stating that the total investment in the silicon material project is about 14 billion yuan , accounting for about 144% of Jolywood's 2020 audited company's total assets. Judging from the reply to the inquiry letter in the 2021 semi-annual report and semi-annual report of Jolywood, the actual discretionary capital of Jolywood is only 168 million yuan, and the company's asset-liability ratio is 57.63%.
Combined with recent Jolywood(300393.SZ), TBEA(600089. SH), On-machine CNC(603185.SH), Jiangsu Sunshine(600220.SH), etc. There have been announcements of plans to invest in silicon material expansion projects. Some people in the industry told the Financial Associated Press: Statistics show that the new companies that plan to build polysilicon projects have surpassed existing production companies, and the increase in expanded production capacity is significantly greater than the increase in demand. The price war caused by overcapacity and overcapacity may bring the silicon material industry back to the "era of low profit". It is expected that with the gradual release of silicon material production capacity in the second half of the year, the price of silicon material will enter a downward channel. .
2. [Industrial silicon prices remained stable last week] On March 18, the Silicon Industry Association released information on the industrial silicon market: last week, under the background of a slight increase in polysilicon 9th company commander and an increase of about 500 yuan in organic silicon DMC, industrial silicon The price of silicon remained stable. The mainstream price of metallurgical grade was 21,500-23,600 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of chemical grade was 24,000-24,600 yuan/ton. The reasons for the price stabilization are complex. From the perspective of demand, due to the impact of the reduction in commodity prices, organic silicon monomer and metallurgical silicon manufacturers are not willing to purchase. From the perspective of supply, industrial silicon manufacturers have relatively sufficient orders during the dry season and the current raw material prices are common. Rising, resulting in less willingness to cut prices.
3. [The price of polysilicon remained stable this week] The domestic single crystal re-feeding price range this week was 242,000-253,000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 248,200 yuan / ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.16%; The price range of single crystal dense material is 240,000-251,000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 245,800 yuan / ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.20%. The main reasons for the stable operation of polysilicon prices are: due to the less than expected release of new production capacity of silicon materials including Tongwei, GCL, Xinte, Yasi, etc., while the operating rate of existing silicon wafer enterprises has maintained in the same period. At a high level, the release of new silicon wafer production capacity including Zhonghuan, Gaojing, Shuangliang, and Shangji has accelerated, so the supply of silicon materials is relatively insufficient. , the price of silicon material still maintained a slight increase.
As of this week, there are 13 domestic polysilicon companies in production, and line maintenance companies have gradually resumed normal operation. From January to February, domestic polysilicon production totaled about 104,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.9%, and domestic polysilicon imports totaled about 15,100 tons from January to February, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7%.
In March, the maintenance and release of domestic enterprises were less than expected. In addition, due to the influence of logistics and raw materials for individual overseas enterprises, the overall supply increase of silicon materials was only 1000-2000 tons, which was slightly insufficient relative to the demand increase;
In April, some major domestic first-tier factories have a two-month maintenance plan, and overseas enterprises have not yet returned to normal for maintenance and logistics. It is expected that the monthly supply of silicon materials will still increase by 1,000-2,000 tons, but the demand for silicon materials will increase. It is expected to be more than 3000 tons. Therefore, it is expected that under the premise that overseas installations and domestic distributed demand continue to improve in April, the operating rate of silicon wafer companies will remain high, and the price of silicon materials will remain stable.
4. [China's monocrystalline production capacity growth rate is expected to exceed 68% in 2022] According to the data disclosed by photovoltaic news: China's monocrystalline silicon wafer production capacity is 354.5GW in 2021, accounting for 97% of the world's market share, driven by high silicon material prices Affected, the operating rate is only 60%. In 2022, China's mono wafer production capacity will further expand to 597.5GW, an increase of 68.5%. It is estimated that China's mono wafer production capacity may reach 717.5GW in 2023. At present, there are two types of Chinese monocrystalline silicon wafer enterprises in the upstream development model. One is vertically integrated enterprises represented by LONGi, Jinko, JA Solar, Canadian Solar and GCL, and the other is Zhonghuan, High-tech Professional silicon wafer enterprises represented by Jingjing, Inner Mongolia Hongyuan, Meike, Yuze, etc. No matter which model, silicon wafer companies will ultimately compete with the cost-effectiveness of silicon wafers under the background that the market demand in the medium and near term is far less than the production capacity. It is foreseeable that the monocrystalline silicon wafer industry will face serious competitive pressure.
5. [The National Energy Administration released the national power generation installed capacity data at the end of February 2022] National Energy Administration: As of the end of February, the national power generation installed capacity was about 2.39 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 7.8%. Among them, the installed capacity of wind power was about 330 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 17.5%; the installed capacity of solar power generation was about 320 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%.
6. [Xingfa Group plans to issue convertible bonds to raise funds not exceeding 2.8 100 million yuan to invest in the construction of downstream applications of silicone Iron phosphate and supporting 100,000 tons/year wet process phosphoric acid refining technology transformation project, New 80,000 tons/year functional silicone rubber project and repayment of bank loans.
7. [LONGi Co., Ltd. signed a two-year polysilicon material purchase agreement of 44.2 billion yuan] LONGi Co., Ltd. and Tongwei Co., Ltd. signed a long-term polysilicon material purchase agreement , from January 2022 to December 2023, the transaction volume of polysilicon materials is 203,600 tons, and the total contract value is estimated to be about 44.2 billion yuan. The long-term cooperation model of silicon material procurement has become a supply chain management model commonly used by leading photovoltaic downstream enterprises.
8. [The investment cost of domestic distributed photovoltaics is expected to drop to 3.53 yuan/W] At the online press conference of the 600W+ distributed application white paper held on March 22, the Deputy Secretary-General of the Household Use Special Committee of China Photovoltaic Industry Association Dai Siyuan said that in 2021, the initial investment cost of my country's industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic systems is 3.74 yuan/W, and it is expected to drop to 3.53 yuan/W in 2022. Through measures such as high-power component solutions, the cost of distributed systems is expected to continue to decrease in the future.
9. [Zhongli Group plans to invest 21 billion yuan to build a green and low-carbon new energy industrial base] Zhongli Group (002309) announced on March 22 that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Talesun Photovoltaic, and the Fuping County Government of Hebei Province The "Cooperation Agreement" signed by Zhongwei New Energy, a subsidiary of the Finance Bureau, intends to jointly build a 5GW heterojunction of 5 billion yuan within 5 yearsBattery, 5GW photovoltaic module manufacturing project and 21 billion yuan 5GW "photovoltaic + modern agriculture" power generation project to build a green and low-carbon new energy industry base in Fuping.
10. [JinkoSolar expects total shipments to be between 35 GW and 40 GW in 2022] JinkoSolar Announcement: Subject to China, Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America Driven by demand growth in the Middle East and the Middle East, the first quarter of 2022 is expected to total between 7.5 GW and 8 GW of total shipments, and total shipments (including modules, cells and silicon film) between 35 GW and 40 GW.
11. [Shouhang Hi-Tech's photovoltaic hydrogen production integrated energy storage demonstration project completed the filing]Shouhang Hi-Tech announced on the evening of March 23 that the company's wholly-owned subsidiary The company Gansu Shouhang Landscape Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd. obtained the "Gansu Shouhang Landscape Hydrogen Energy" issued by the Development and Reform Bureau of Suzhou District, Jiuquan City, Gansu Province on March 22, 2022 Limited Liability Company Photovoltaic Hydrogen Production Integrated Energy Storage Demonstration Project" filing document.
12. [Jiangsu Jingpin plans to invest in the construction of a 12GW high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon rod and wafer project in Karamay City, Xinjiang] Jingpin New Energy, as a high-tech enterprise focusing on the R&D and production of high-quality photovoltaic monocrystalline silicon wafers, 3 On the morning of March 22, the company signed an investment agreement for a 12GW high-efficiency monocrystalline silicon rod and silicon wafer project with the People's Government of Wuerhe District, Karamay City. The project is implemented in two phases: the first phase is a 6GW monocrystalline pull rod project with an investment of about 1.5 billion yuan; the second phase is a 6GW single crystal pull rod + silicon wafer project with an investment of about 2 billion yuan. Construction started in April this year. Jiangsu Jingpin's silicon-based new material technology is a technology that can "turn a stone into gold", which can "transform" pebbles into cells installed on solar panels for photovoltaic power generation.
13. [Industrial silicon market this week] On March 25, the Silicon Industry Branch announced that the overall pattern of this week's industrial silicon market was as follows: transactions were light and prices fell slightly. Among them, the mainstream price of metallurgical grade is 21200-23600 yuan/ton, down 200-300 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of chemical grade is 23600-24600 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton.
From the perspective of product prices in the main downstream application markets, the price of polysilicon continued to rise. The price of single crystal dense material was 245,800 yuan / ton, a month-on-month increase of 0.20%; the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 22,000 yuan. / ton; the price of silicone DMC fell by 4,000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was 31,500 yuan / ton.
This week's industrial silicon market was mainly affected by weaker demand. Among them, the price of organic silicon continued to fall, restricting the demand for chemical-grade industrial silicon; although the price of aluminum alloys was relatively stable, due to the impact of the epidemic, downstream purchases were still dominated by rigid demand; foreign demand was good, and the price of silicon remained the same as last week.
Suggestion: Under the background of the domestic economic upward pressure in the first half of the year, the increase of world turbulent factors, and the European energy crisis, overseas industrial silicon supply chains are facing opportunities for restructuring. Combined with China is the world's largest industrial silicon production and export China, and pay close attention to the overseas industrial silicon market.
Third, Micro chapters
(1) Process and equipment case
(II) Operation and Management Cases
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